We’ve been debating a post this week from the fertile minds at Decision Science News on the “hot hand effect.” The sports theory of “hot hand” is the perception that someone who makes a shot is more likely to make their subsequent shot, with probability “beyond what his or her long run stats would suggest.”
The idea was validated by a recent study of volleyball game data by psychologist Markus Raab of German Sport University Cologne, published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied
“Coaches can detect players’ performance variability and use it to make strategic decisions (Study 2A). Playmakers are also sensitive to streaks and rely on them when deciding to whom to allocate the ball (Study 2B). We conclude that for volleyball the hot hand exists, coaches and playmakers are able to detect it, and playmakers tend to use it “adaptively,” which results in more hits for a team.”
Our own discussions have centered on the career implications; or, the idea that a succession of high-impact engagements could raise the perceived value of an IT consultant over peers who spent years in a single department.
HSI‘s clients are seeking IT talent that will drive innovation for their business. Do they subscribe to the “hot hand” theory of success begetting success? Our less-than-scientific analysis of hiring patterns suggests that they do, indeed.
Food for thought when weighing the permanent vs. contract career path…
Image credit: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images AsiaPac
Amanda–I like this content–nice job. I suspect that a sales person who closes a good sized deal will exude confidence and energy sufficient to constitute a “hot hand”
Thanks, Mike! I’ll ask Lou if that’s the case.